Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 3.470997 3.774726 4.124899 4.567387 5.126002 5.830744 6.831692
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 3.067967 3.442287 3.907076 4.553257 5.482467 6.888768 9.548693
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 2.787522 3.179361 3.685912 4.430631 5.595762 7.617823 12.684764
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 2.666370 3.091017 3.662910 4.555684 6.097099 9.317347 23.459936
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 2.488124 2.903886 3.473567 4.386667 6.037966 9.848707 37.582215
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 2.338003 2.740640 3.298609 4.208857 5.908744 10.136019 71.288181
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 2.235097 2.633749 3.193775 4.127385 5.943478 10.949499 NaN
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 2.197506 2.613813 3.213256 4.253794 6.447408 14.114957 NaN
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 2.182706 2.623871 3.277420 4.468266 7.256955 22.130267 NaN
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 2.129175 2.573448 3.241386 4.490609 7.600031 31.380040 NaN
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 2.085296 2.534155 3.219133 4.535348 8.038912 59.696686 NaN
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 2.002422 2.432533 3.088226 4.345790 7.677124 53.683347 NaN
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 1.957763 2.388617 3.053367 4.356937 8.016844 257.726756 NaN
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 1.911134 2.339553 3.006749 4.338359 8.262532 NaN NaN
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 1.852871 2.270136 2.921491 4.227322 8.124620 NaN NaN
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 1.835496 2.262062 2.939003 4.340187 8.939093 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 1.778142 2.189944 2.842246 4.187531 8.553545 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 1.722281 2.118614 2.744303 4.026227 8.103848 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 1.682935 2.071735 2.686803 3.952075 8.026500 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 1.674854 2.072829 2.712025 4.067061 8.870670 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 1.677375 2.090390 2.767074 4.261312 10.392229 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 1.655922 2.069069 2.751127 4.281489 10.971112 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 00:00:00+00:00 1.638113 2.052869 2.743495 4.321853 11.781250 NaN NaN